SABO MEDIA: Strategy Papers

THE PEOPLE METER IS THE BEST THING EVER

By: SABO MEDIA

The people meter is the best thing for radio revenues and for driving up radio's pathetically low rates.

When Arbitron sends the ratings report to agencies, it will show media buyers the same-time, same-day, same city ratings for broadcast TV, cable TV and for Radio. That's a very good moment for radio because it will show, for example that from 6-10 AM in New York City, CNN averages about 30,000 viewers and WINS averages 1,500,000 listeners.

The report will prove that most radio stations have more listeners in their home markets than cable channels have viewers in the same market. Obviously, this new report will be a powerful tool for solving radio's biggest sales problem, rates that are so low relative to audience size that advertisers think there's something wrong with radio.

There is nothing mysterious about the people meter or the panel sampling method.

DIARIES VS. METERS, THIRTY YEARS OF TV FIELD TESTS:
As Sabo Media clients have known for fifteen years, all of your diary vs meter questions were answered in a study commissioned by the Association of Independent Television stations in the mid 1980's. INTV put diaries and meters in the same houses in fourteen cities for one month. What did they discover?

In every single city:

More homes were using television for more hours according to the meters than the diaries.
Meters showed higher viewership among 18-24 men.
Meters showed all independent stations had 8-30% more viewers.
Meters showed an increase in cartoon and kid show viewership and a decline in news.
Meters showed viewers watching syndiated Cheers reruns on Independent stations but diaries showed they wrote down the NBC affiliate. (Of course, NBC spent millions to brand Friends as NBC's.)

Ask your friend in TV about what happens when a market is switched from diaries to meters. The data is bountiful. The results are consistent: More hours of total viewing. Indies go up. Kids viewing goes up.

WHAT ABOUT THE SPOOKY PANELS?
We have never allowed client stations to program to the lie that a programmer can "maximize their cume" ie, get their audience to listen longer. Diaries can't measure that for one stupidly obvious reason: Diaries are mailed back each week. Your cume is in the mail. A new sample each week demands vigilant cume building strategies.

The reason Arbitron HAD to gather as large a diary sample as possible is that the diary uses unaided recall. It doesn't measure listening. It can't. Never could. It measures what people remember and are willing to admit in writing. What's in your medicine cabinet? Willing to admit it in writing, sign your name, mail it back for a buck? Thought so.

The diary method assumes correct recall of station names, universal ownership of nuclear powered clocks and a willingness to admit all listening in writing. More shockingly, it assumes everyone can actually spell. Doesn't happen. Strangely, most stations have marketed to this lie. Their advertisements tell people to "listen" rather than to do what we really want them to do which is "Remember to write it down so you don't forget." (Yes, you can use that phrase in advertising.)

The panels match the measurement system used by Nielson for TV and consumer packaged goods sales. It is understood and respected by the advertising community. Here's what the people meters will do for you:

PREDICTIONS:

Of course AM drive numbers will go down slightly. All the memory joggers on and off your station point to morning drive. That's all you remind them to think of when filling out a diary. Nights and weekends are memory orphans.
Weekends and nights will go up.
Male 18-24 cume will increase.
Howard Stern, CHR, All news and Country will show higher cumes.
Lite FMs, Talk, Dance and urbans will increase time spent listening.
Jazz, NPR and Classical cume will tank.
The average number of stations reported sampled will double in all cities. Diaries showed that people could remember about 3 stations a week. Three stations will continue to hold the majority of time spent listening but three or four more will start showing as being sampled.
Women 45-54 cume will decline 5-10 %.
Spot loads will go down. The evidence will be overwhelming that too many spots cause too much tune out. Lower spot loads will drive much higher rates. (The result will be better quality clients, lower churn, better sales personnel and improved collections.)

BANG FOR YOUR MARKETING BUCK:

You will see an immediate measure of the impact of external advertising and on-air contesting on listening levels. Prediction: External advertising investment will increase. Thank god. It will be no problem to increase the impovershed marketing budget because now you'll be able to command much higher ad rates.

Stations that have good product but weak on-air ID and no advertising can expect an increase in Time Spent listening. People who write down formats to appear cool, like Jazz, will decline. Shows that some people are hesitant to admit to in writing like Howard Stern, and relationship call-in shows will soar.

Stations with good product and consistent external advertising will increase share more than they would have with diary methodology. That's because the diary doesn't measure listenership and most radio advertising asks people to listen rather than to remember.

LIABILITY
Liabilities? Compared with the unaided recall paper diary, there are none. The paper diary has less than 40% return rate. Half of those are thrown away because people can't spell. They cannot measure listening. The raw data has never supported the rigorous analysis you've wasted money doing. (Your kitchen has three clocks. None are set to the same time. Which do we use exactly to determine if you listened at 9:55 or 10:05?) Arbitron's own intervention studies show that many diary keepers fill out the diaries on the first and last day of the week.

Sure, it would be ideal if the meter could measure headphone listenership. But a measurement of 98% of actual listening with a meter versus a top of mind guess on paper is better for the business.

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